Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
